U.S. Job Growth Slows Amid Government Shutdown
The ongoing government shutdown is taking a toll on the U.S. job market, as a top economist warns that job creation has significantly decreased. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi noted that the shutdown has delayed the release of the September jobs report, which would have provided valuable insights into the labor market.
In a recent post, Zandi mentioned that data analysts are now relying on private reports to gauge employment trends. One such report from Revelio Labs suggested that the economy added around 60,000 jobs in September, mostly in the education and healthcare sectors. However, Zandi cautioned that this figure might be exaggerated, as Revelio’s previous estimates have often been revised downward as more accurate information becomes available.
Notably, most of the job growth was confined to three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts. According to another report from ADP, private sector jobs actually declined by 32,000 in September. This reduction is particularly affecting smaller businesses, which are feeling the strain from tariffs and restrictive immigration policies.
Zandi pointed out that the overall economy probably experienced a larger drop in job numbers than the reports indicate, especially as government employment likely fell this month due to ongoing budget cuts. By averaging data from both Revelio and ADP, it appears there was essentially no net job growth.
Other indicators also reflect a weakening job market. A recent consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board showed that perceptions of job availability have worsened, reaching levels seen early in 2021. This is a concerning sign that unemployment may have risen again in September.
Without the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report, it’s challenging to assess the economy’s health accurately. However, private data sources are stepping in to provide insights, revealing a troubling trend in the job market. Zandi emphasized the importance of reliable data to make sound policy decisions in the future.
Looking ahead, once the government reopens, the BLS is expected to release the delayed September jobs report. However, it may take time for the agency to finalize the data, leaving many anxious to see the real state of U.S. employment.
