As Tropical Depression Nineteen is close to becoming Tropical Storm Sara, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has shared predictions about when the storm’s winds will reach land.
According to an NHC map, tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph are expected to hit the north coast of Honduras around 8 p.m. ET on Friday. The storm is anticipated to impact the northern section of Guatemala by Sunday morning and eastern Belize by Sunday evening. By Monday morning, it should make landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before moving back over the ocean to the northwest.
However, the forecast becomes less reliable as time goes on. After Saturday morning, accuracy is expected to drop below 60 percent and fall to under 30 percent by Sunday evening.
Currently, the storm has wind speeds of 35 mph and will officially be named Tropical Storm Sara when it reaches tropical storm strength, likely within the next 48 hours. There’s a chance that it could strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.
The NHC reports that the storm may be near hurricane strength as it approaches the eastern coast of Honduras this weekend. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are already in effect along the coast of Honduras. Some areas could see as much as 30 inches of rain, while other regions in northern Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua could experience up to 15 inches.
Heavy rainfall is expected to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across Central America. Additionally, storm surge of up to 3 feet is possible along the northern coast of Honduras.
Forecasters are uncertain about how much the storm will intensify, as it depends on how long it will stay over land. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over water, but land interactions could limit intensification.
After passing through Central America, the storm may head northeast toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, though how likely this is remains unclear. The NHC stated it is too early to predict the impact on regions like Florida and Cuba in the middle of next week.
