Survivor Pool Strategy as NFL Season Kicks Off
As the NFL season begins, many fans are looking forward to participating in Survivor pools. The concept is simple: each week, you choose one team to win straight up. Once you pick a team, you can’t choose them again, and if they lose, you’re out of the game. While strategy plays a big role, a little luck always helps.
Understanding how to navigate through the weeks will be essential. Our goal this season is to provide you with insights on which teams offer the best chance to win while also considering the implications of each choice.
The number of participants in these pools can vary widely. For example, the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas could see over 15,000 entries, while smaller groups at offices might only have 15 participants. The bigger the pool, the more strategy you’ll need to apply—especially since you want to last the entire 18 weeks.
Week 1 Money Lines
Every week, you’ll want to analyze the betting market, particularly the money lines, which reflect the odds for each team’s chance of winning. This allows you to calculate the implied win percentage for your potential picks.
It’s important to remember that selecting a team isn’t just about picking the one most likely to win that week. Once you use a team, they’re out of your available options for the rest of the season. You’ll need to have enough teams left to rely upon, especially those ranked lower in the betting market.
Top Picks for Week 1
As we dive into the teams to consider for Week 1, it’s vital to think about your decision tree—what choosing one team might mean for future weeks. Let’s break down the top options.
Denver Broncos (Implied Win Probability: 76.8%)
The Broncos kick off their season at home against the Titans. Currently, they are significant favorites, with a spread of -8. However, every game offers surprises, and even a team perceived as a lock can be toppled. The Titans might be more formidable than many expect.
What You Might Miss:
- Week 6 against the Jets
- Week 7 against the Giants
- Week 16 against the Jaguars
This could be the easiest matchup for the Broncos, but using them early can limit your strategic choices later.
Philadelphia Eagles (Implied Win Probability: 76.8%)
The Eagles face the Cowboys in what promises to be an exciting opening night. Currently, the betting market favors Philadelphia by over a touchdown.
What You Might Miss:
- Week 8 against the Giants
- Week 13 against the Bears
- Week 15 against the Raiders
Using the Eagles early might serve you well now, but it’s important to consider future matchups where they’re likely to be favored again.
Arizona Cardinals (Implied Win Probability: 71.3%)
The Cardinals will compete against the Saints, who are still seen as a team in transition. The home field advantage plays a role here, but betting markets often skew perceptions—since home teams don’t have as much of an edge as they used to.
What You Might Miss:
- Week 2 against the Panthers
- Week 4 against the Seahawks
- Week 5 against the Titans
Given uncertain projections, the Cardinals could be a solid option, but trust your judgement.
Washington Commanders (Implied Win Probability: 70.6%)
The Commanders face the Giants, and it’s an important game for both as they look to build momentum early in the season.
What You Might Miss:
- Week 3 against the Raiders
- Week 6 against the Bears
- Week 9 against the Seahawks
Despite their position in the market, both teams are looking to establish themselves, making this a potential gamble.
Dark Horse Choice: Los Angeles Rams (Implied Win Probability: 55.9%)
Picking a lesser-favored team can be a risky choice for the Survivor format, but if there are many entries in your pool, it might be necessary. The Rams will face an improved Texans team, which complicates the matchup.
What You Might Miss:
- Week 4 against the Colts
- Week 9 against the Saints
- Week 11 against the Seahawks
Using the Rams may give you leverage for later weeks, but be mindful of their performance early.
Conclusion
With the NFL season underway, every decision you make can impact your chances of success in Survivor pools. It’s important to balance your choices carefully and consider both immediate and future implications. The path through the season can be unpredictable, so make sure you pick wisely.
Every twist and turn of the season adds to the excitement. Good luck!
