Poll Suggests Mike Lawler Might Be Stronger Opponent Against Kathy Hochul
Recent polling indicates that Rep. Mike Lawler could have a better chance than Rep. Elise Stefanik in the race against New York’s Governor Kathy Hochul in 2026. Conducted by Brock McCleary of Harper Polling, the survey suggests that Lawler appeals more to moderate voters than Stefanik does.
In the head-to-head matchup, Hochul initially leads Lawler by 48% to 41%. However, the race tightens considerably when voters are informed about the candidates’ records, with Hochul only edging out Lawler by 44% to 43.4%. In contrast, Hochul has a more comfortable lead over Stefanik, scoring 50.1% compared to Stefanik’s 38.8%. After voters are educated about their backgrounds, Hochul remains in the lead at 46% to Stefanik’s 42.6%.
Key Insights from the Poll
One significant takeaway from the poll is Lawler’s performance in key areas of New York. For example, he holds a 20-point advantage over Hochul on Long Island, while Stefanik’s lead in the same region is slightly lower at 15 points.
In the Hudson Valley, which includes Lawler’s home in Rockland County, Lawler trails Hochul by just five points, while Stefanik faces a larger gap, down by 13 points. This suggests that Lawler may have better grassroots support in areas crucial for a statewide race.
Interestingly, both candidates demonstrate similar strength in upstate New York. In regions like Albany and Central New York, both Lawler and Stefanik have narrow leads over Hochul, indicating competitiveness across various parts of the state.
Voter Sentiment and Hochul’s Vulnerability
The survey also reveals that Hochul may not have solid footing in her re-election campaign. Nearly 60% of voters disapprove of her performance, while only 38% express approval. More alarming for her campaign, just 29% support her run for a second term, with a significant 66% preferring a different candidate.
Pollster McCleary notes that Hochul is “a very unpopular incumbent,” which could open the door for Lawler or Stefanik to pose a real challenge. This vulnerability is echoed in various other polls, suggesting that despite New York’s Democratic leanings, Hochul might be at risk.
The Role of Moderates in the Race
Moderates represent a critical demographic in New York given their composition: 51% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 28% Independents. McCleary highlights that Lawler’s appeal among moderates is stronger, performing 10 points better than Stefanik in this category.
While Stefanik enjoys higher name recognition among Republicans, Lawler’s ability to attract moderates could prove pivotal in the upcoming election. Stefanik’s campaign suggests that her close relationship with former President Trump could bolster her appeal, arguing that distancing from Trump, as some perceive Lawler to do, could be a mistake in a state like New York.
The Road Ahead for Candidates
As both Lawler and Stefanik consider a gubernatorial run, their paths will undoubtedly shape New York’s political landscape in the upcoming years. Stefanik is reportedly leaning towards a campaign, while Lawler is weighing his options, deciding whether to focus on the governor’s race or seek re-election for his congressional seat.
The results from this recent poll, with a margin of error of 4%, provide both a challenge and an opportunity for the Republican contenders. The stakes are high as they prepare to take on a vulnerable incumbent who, despite her unpopularity, will not go down without a fight.
Overall, voters are eager for a change from Hochul’s administration, and both Lawler and Stefanik show potential to rally support and turn the tide in 2026. The coming months will be critical as we watch how each candidate positions themselves and their platforms to win over New Yorkers.
