In New York City, a recent survey indicates a tight race among candidates vying for the support of LGBT voters in the upcoming mayoral primary. Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani holds a slight lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, with a significant portion of voters still undecided. This group of voters is poised to play a crucial role, potentially accounting for up to 25% of the total vote in the Democratic primary.
According to the poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group for the Bronx-based organization Destination Tomorrow, 25% of LGBT voters currently support Mamdani, while 21% back Cuomo. Notably, no other candidate has garnered more than 10% of the support, highlighting a two-person race. Pollster Bradley Honan expressed surprise at the high percentage of undecided voters within the LGBT community, noting that approximately 24% are unsure of their choice as the early voting period approaches.
Breaking down the demographics, the survey found that 75% of Democrats identify as heterosexual, while about 20% identify as LGBT or non-heterosexual. The survey also revealed various identities within the LGBT spectrum, including 7% identifying as gay or lesbian, 4% as bisexual, and smaller percentages for other identities like pansexual and queer.
City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams is receiving 7% support among LGBT Democratic voters. Other candidates, including City Comptroller Brad Lander and former Comptroller Scott Stringer, have attracted 6% of the vote each, while Queens State Senator Jessica Ramos and former Bronx Assemblyman Michael Blake round out the field with 2%.
Cuomo, who previously championed the legalization of same-sex marriage in New York, has faced challenges since resigning as governor due to sexual misconduct allegations, which he has denied. His past achievements in advocating for LGBT rights have historically garnered him strong support, making this election particularly interesting as he seeks to reclaim his political standing.
Despite his history, major LGBT political clubs have refrained from endorsing his candidacy for the primary. The Stonewall Democrats ranked Speaker Adams first, Lander second, and Mamdani third, reflecting a shift in support among key political groups within the community.
The survey results reveal that the narrow 4-point margin between Mamdani and Cuomo falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating that the outcome remains uncertain. Interestingly, in a broader query of all Democratic voters, Cuomo was projected to defeat Mamdani by 56% to 44% in a ranked-choice scenario, showing a stronger position among the entire Democratic electorate.
The poll also sheds light on critical issues facing LGBT New Yorkers. Many respondents voiced the need for more action from the next mayor to support the LGBT community, particularly those from black and brown backgrounds. This reflects an ongoing dialogue within the party about addressing the unique challenges faced by marginalized communities.
As the primary date approaches, the engagement of LGBT voters will be a significant factor in determining the eventual nominee. Early voting begins soon, and with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided, candidate platforms may shift as they attempt to appeal to this vital demographic.
The survey, encompassing 1,257 Democratic voters, was conducted between June 5 and June 9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.76 percentage points. As candidates continue to canvass and present their visions for the city, the outcomes of this primary could have implications not only for New York City but also resonate within the broader political landscape as voters seek leaders who will truly represent their interests.
