As the excitement builds for the upcoming NFL Draft, discussions about this year’s top quarterback prospects are heating up. Two years ago, Will Levis captured attention, and Michael Penix Jr. followed suit last year. This time, many eyes are on Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who is a strong contender for a high draft pick.
Despite the vast amounts of data and analytical expertise put to work evaluating players, NFL teams still often struggle to predict where quarterbacks will land in the draft. Teams prepare by ranking players based on skill and potential, attempting to forecast the draft’s trajectory. Typically, these evaluations converge around a few well-regarded players projected to be first-round picks, but the quarterback position remains unpredictable.
An experienced NFL evaluator recently pointed out that while ranking offensive tackles tends to be straightforward—most are expected to go within the first 50 picks—quarterbacks can be much trickier. “You can have one quarterback anticipated to be picked in the fourth round, and his team might select him in the second round instead. It can get wild,” he explained.
Insights from executives across 10 NFL teams suggest that this draft is no different from the past regarding quarterback prospects’ unpredictability. Miami’s Cam Ward is widely regarded as the likely choice for the Tennessee Titans at the No. 1 overall pick. After Ward, evaluations of Sanders vary significantly among teams. Half still see him potentially making the top 10 on draft night, while the rest have him positioned lower, with one team projecting him into the second round. Despite some skepticism about whether he will be picked high by teams like the New York Giants or the Las Vegas Raiders, there remains a strong belief among several executives that Sanders could indeed be a top-10 choice.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe has also made headlines at the draft invitation in Green Bay, suggesting he could be a surprise first-round selection. Despite recent positive feedback highlighting Milroe’s skills as an athletic runner and developing passer, projections range from late second-round to mid-third-round picks for him. Nonetheless, some executives propose that a team with an unfilled need at quarterback might take a chance on Milroe earlier than expected, considering his potential.
As the draft approaches, the chances of Sanders being selected at No. 3 by the Giants are not off the table, although a more plausible strategy might involve New York taking another player, such as Abdul Carter, and potentially trading back into the first round for Sanders if he begins to slide.
On the other hand, the overwhelming expectation is that Milroe will fall to the second or third round, though surprises can always occur. The saying “it only takes one team to be interested” rings particularly true in this context.
Looking at the broader landscape of the draft, several teams are poised to make moves on draft day. The Denver Broncos may eye a wide receiver or running back, considering a trade-up from their 20th overall position. Similarly, the Pittsburgh Steelers could choose to trade back from 21 to gather more assets while targeting a quarterback late in the first round.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills at 30th overall may explore moving up if a highly-rated cornerback begins to drop down the board. The draft is expected to feature a range of offensive and defensive skill players, with teams needing to make strategic decisions based on their current rosters and future needs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are widely anticipated to select an offensive skill position player at fifth overall. In contrast, the New Orleans Saints’ intentions for their No. 9 pick seem to have shifted from a quarterback to focusing on acquiring an offensive tackle or running back.
As the draft nears, numerous factors will influence selections, including team needs, player evaluations, and potential trades. The emphasis is likely to remain on offensive linemen and defensive players, presenting both challenges and opportunities for teams as they finalize their strategies.
With the draft only days away, all eyes are on how these predictions will play out and which emerging stars will reshape the future of NFL teams. The unpredictability and excitement surrounding the quarterback class in particular illustrate the dynamic nature of the draft, where anything can happen.
