The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament has a history of surprising upsets, and as we look ahead to the 2025 competition, there’s a strong possibility that fans will witness shocking results once again. Historically, recent tournaments have seen a trend where top seeds, such as No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3, are often vulnerable in the first round.
In the past six tournaments, at least one highly-ranked team has fallen in the opening round. Notably, the tournament has featured two exceptional cases of No. 16 seeds defeating No. 1 seeds. The most famous instance occurred in 2018 when UMBC shocked the basketball world by defeating Virginia. More recently in 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson took down No. 1 Purdue, adding to the tournament’s storied history.
As March Madness approaches, speculation is rife about which higher-seeded teams might struggle in their initial match-ups. Let’s take a closer look at some first-round games that could showcase potential upsets.
Starting with the heavily favored No. 1 Auburn Tigers, who are set to go against No. 16 Alabama State. The spread for this match-up is a startling 32.5 points, indicating how dominant Auburn is expected to be. Alabama State comes into the game with the wind at their back, having narrowly defeated St. Francis PA in the First Four match just days before. While the odds are very much against them, anything can happen in the NCAA tournament.
Similarly, No. 1 Duke will be matched against No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s, where expectations are similarly grim for the underdogs. Duke is expected to win decisively, with oddsmakers expecting little suspense in this bout. However, it may be interesting to see how Cooper Flagg performs after an ankle injury kept him off the court in the ACC tournament.
Another strong contender is No. 1 Houston, who will face No. 16 SIU Edwardsville. Houston has secured a top seed for the third consecutive year and aims to reach the Elite Eight for the first time during that stretch. Despite a solid season, SIUE managed to win their conference tournament and will be looking to pull off what would be a monumental upset with odds at +3300.
No. 1 Florida will play against No. 16 Norfolk State, with a betting spread of 28.5 points, reflecting Florida’s strong finish to the regular season. They’ve become popular picks for the national title after dominating play in the SEC tournament. Nevertheless, Norfolk State has a history of pulling off surprising victories in the tournament, famously defeating No. 2 Missouri as a No. 15 seed back in 2012.
Moving up the seed ladder, No. 2 Alabama will face No. 15 Robert Morris. Alabama has key players returning to the court following injuries, enhancing their chances against a Robert Morris team that boasts +1900 odds of winning.
Then there’s No. 2 Tennessee against No. 15 Wofford. Known for their strong defensive abilities, Tennessee’s style of play will be put to the test in what is expected to be a notably slow-paced game. Wofford will need a stellar performance if they are to complicate Tennessee’s plans, with their odds set at +1250.
The path doesn’t get easier for No. 2 St. John’s as they prepare to take on No. 15 Omaha, a team that will need to overcome St. John’s formidable defense to pull off an upset, which currently has odds of +1200.
If fans are seeking to root for an upset, No. 2 Michigan State has a matchup against No. 15 Bryant, where Bryant holds the best odds for upsetting a top-two seed at +1050. The same goes for No. 3 Wisconsin, who will meet No. 14 Montana, with the latter showing excellent two-point shooting percentages and also having odds at +1050.
As the 2025 tournament unfolds, many will have their eyes on No. 3 Texas Tech, set to face No. 14 UNC Wilmington. UNC Wilmington, returning to the NCAA tournament after several successful seasons, will aim to dismantle one of the most skilled offenses in the nation for a shocking upset.
Finally, No. 3 Kentucky, now under a cloud of scrutiny following previous early exits, contests against No. 14 Troy. The odds of Troy pulling an upset are currently the lowest on this list at +500, but their recent form in the Sun Belt tournament makes them a team to watch.
With the excitement of March Madness on the horizon, fans are eagerly anticipating impactful performances and the chance of upsets as the tournament progresses. The unpredictable nature of the NCAA tournament is what captivates audiences year after year, making it a thrilling spectacle for all basketball lovers.
