March Madness: An Unexpectedly Calm Start
March is usually known for its thrilling surprises in college basketball, but the initial rounds of this year’s NCAA tournament have turned out to be quite tame. Instead of the anticipated upsets and dramatic games, the first round has showcased the dominance of higher-seeded teams, leaving fans wanting more excitement.
This year, the top four seeds in the men’s NCAA tournament boasted a flawless record, finishing at an impressive 16-0 in the first round. The last time that every top-four seed managed to win their opening games was in 2017, marking just the sixth occurrence since the tournament expanded to its current 64-team format. This consistent performance underscores a notable trend in college basketball, one that has made the early stages of March Madness less unpredictable than in years past.
As the tournament kicked off on Thursday and Friday, the average victory margin for the higher seeds was a staggering 22.6 points. Many lower-seeded teams, particularly those ranked 13 to 16, were unable to compete, with more than half losing by 20 points or more. Notably, none of these teams even came within a single-digit margin of upsetting their higher-ranked opponents, showcasing a gap in talent that has become difficult to overlook.
For instance, Norfolk State’s head coach, Robert Jones, expressed his frustration at being labeled a massive underdog against the top-seeded Florida team, being positioned as 28.5-point underdogs. The Spartans found themselves trailing by 32 points at one stage in the first half, a reflection of the overwhelming challenge faced by lower-ranked teams against top-tier competition.
Duke made headlines by trouncing Mount St. Mary’s by 44 points, further emphasizing how the dominant teams have overshadowed their opponents. The performance from the Blue Devils and other top seeds solidifies the narrative that this year’s tournament might be more predictable than previous iterations.
However, amidst the consistent victories, there was some spirited competition. Akron’s guard Seth Wilson declared that his team would play without fear against the fourth-seeded Arizona, emphasizing their belief that they could go toe-to-toe with the best. Yet, even their confidence did not translate into a chance for an upset, as Arizona cruised to a comfortable victory.
One of the factors contributing to this year’s top seeds’ success can be traced back to the landscape of college basketball. The influence of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals and the increasing ease of player transfers have reshaped team compositions. High-profile transfers, often valued in the hundreds of thousands, have shifted to more prominent programs, which have further established their dominance.
Additionally, although mid-major teams have historically provided thrilling Cinderella stories, many of these programs now face the challenge of losing their top players to higher-seeded teams. Conversely, this transfer system has also allowed some mid-major teams to acquire talent from larger programs, which could level the playing field in future tournaments.
Moreover, there’s an intriguing dynamic at play when it comes to the experience of athletes. While many high-major teams rely on seasoned upperclassmen and grad transfers, which seems to be paying off this tournament, mid-major teams are also adapting. Some have successfully integrated transfers into their rosters, strengthening their chances in tournaments. The success of teams like McNeese, whose lineup boasted prominent transfers leading to a first-round victory, reflects this evolving strategy.
As the tournament progresses, fans are left to ponder whether this year’s dominance by higher seeds will transform into a longer-term trend or if it is merely a fleeting occurrence. Only time will reveal the full impact of these changes within college basketball.
Despite the first round’s predictability, hope remains that the ensuing rounds will bring the excitement that March Madness is renowned for. Currently, the balance of remaining teams leans heavily toward power conferences, with half representing the Big Ten or the SEC. As we look to the next phase of the tournament, there is a collective hope for more thrilling matchups and unexpected twists that keep the spirit of March Madness alive.
