Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Faces Uncertain Future Amid Setbacks
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), once a dominant force in Iran, is now grappling with significant challenges that may reshape its role. Founded after the 1979 revolution to protect the Islamic Republic, the IRGC has used both ideology and power to maintain control. Yet, recent military losses have prompted experts to question its future.
Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a prominent Iran analyst, pointed out that recent U.S. and Israeli military actions could have lasting effects on the IRGC’s strategy. Many see this as a critical moment for a group that has increasingly faced resistance both domestically and internationally.
Over the decades, the IRGC has tried to establish itself as a powerful military force, focusing mainly on missile development and regional influence through proxy groups. However, experts now suggest these efforts are faltering. “Their plans for military deterrents and regional dominance have essentially collapsed,” Ostovar explained.
Originally formed to counteract the loyalty of Iran’s national military to the former Shah, the IRGC evolved into a powerful entity driven by a mix of revolutionary fervor and fear. Behnam Ben Taleblu, another expert on Iran, emphasized that the group thrived on a narrative of an ongoing struggle against the U.S. and its allies.
Despite this, many Iranians today are losing faith in the regime. Ostovar noted, “The ideology of the IRGC no longer resonates with the majority of the population. There is a growing desire for better relations with the West.”
The IRGC currently collaborates closely with the ruling clerics, sharing power in a system that allows them to pursue their revolutionary ambitions. But in light of recent setbacks—including losses in Lebanon and Gaza—analysts believe the group may struggle to maintain its influence.
Domestically, the IRGC’s economic operations are under pressure from sanctions and cyberattacks. Fewer global banks are willing to engage with Iran for fear of dealing with IRGC-linked entities, forcing the group to operate through covert channels. “They are stretched thin and will likely face more challenges in maintaining their operations,” Ostovar said.
Both Ostovar and Taleblu agree that while the IRGC has suffered losses, it is unlikely to rebel against the regime. “The Guardsmen remain loyal due to a mix of ideology and the benefits they receive from the current structure,” Taleblu noted.
Looking forward, analysts fear that Iran may turn inward, shifting its focus from external confrontations to stricter domestic repression. The continued suppression of dissent within Iran suggests a move toward increased authoritarianism, possibly resembling regimes like North Korea.
As the IRGC faces a generational shift, there’s concern that younger members—though less religious—may still harbor the same hardline views toward their adversaries. Meanwhile, some reformists within the regime are advocating for a change in approach, hoping to foster better relations with the global community.
Despite the IRGC’s recent difficulties, its grip on power remains significant. “The Guards still wield considerable influence in Iran’s political and military landscape,” Taleblu stated, emphasizing that their future actions will be crucial in shaping the country’s trajectory.
