The future of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rests with a select group of five judges. In the coming weeks, this panel, made up of five out of the eleven members of Brazil’s Supreme Court, will determine whether Bolsonaro, along with 33 others, will face trial for allegedly attempting to stage a coup.
To expedite legal proceedings, the Supreme Court may convene one of its two permanent five-judge panels, excluding the court’s president. Changes in these panels typically occur at the request of judges or when a judge takes on a new role as the court president, a position that changes every two years.
Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who is leading the cases against Bolsonaro, is set to present them to the panel. However, the five judges making this critical decision will not include the two members appointed by Bolsonaro, André Mendonça and Kássio Nunes Marques, as they belong to a different panel.
Bolsonaro’s legal team is advocating for the full court to hear this case, rather than just the five-judge panel. However, only Judge de Moraes or a majority—three of the five judges—can make that decision.
If the charges are upheld, this same panel could oversee the entire trial, including defending arguments and witness testimonies, eventually reaching a verdict.
Legal experts in Brazil are divided on whether to keep this trial within the smaller panel to avoid complications leading into the 2026 presidential elections or to escalate it for a more authoritative decision from the entire court. Luis Henrique Machado, a criminal lawyer and law professor, suggests that while it is unlikely the panel will dismiss the charges against Bolsonaro, there is no guarantee of a guilty verdict.
Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing on the five charges against him, asserting that he is being politically persecuted.
Here’s a brief overview of the judges who will influence Bolsonaro’s potential trial:
Alexandre de Moraes
De Moraes is the lead judge in Bolsonaro’s cases and has been a target of criticism from Bolsonaro and his supporters. Appointed by former President Michel Temer in 2017, he is regarded as a conservative judge with experience in public security matters. At 56, he has faced scrutiny, even from figures like Elon Musk, who argued for his removal due to alleged judicial overreach.
Cármen Lúcia
Serving as president of the Superior Electoral Court and appointed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006, Lúcia, now 70, is known for her strict stance on criminal cases, including those involving the sitting president. She has frequently aligned with de Moraes on cases related to democratic safeguards and previously criticized Bolsonaro’s respect for the presidency.
Cristiano Zanin
Zanin, at 49, is the head of the panel. He previously represented Lula from 2013 until his appointment. His work was key in overturning Lula’s corruption conviction, leading to Lula’s release and subsequent victory over Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections. He has been vocal against judicial overreach following the extensive corruption investigations that jailed Lula.
Flávio Dino
Dino, a former federal judge, transitioned to politics before his 2023 Supreme Court appointment, nominated by Lula. He served as Justice Minister during the January 2023 assault on government buildings by Bolsonaro supporters, which prosecutors claim was part of a plan to restore Bolsonaro to power. He has been a longstanding critic of Bolsonaro.
Luiz Fux
Fux, appointed in 2011 by then-President Dilma Rousseff, is seen as a moderate judge. He clashed with Bolsonaro’s administration, especially over COVID-19 policies, lamenting that the court became a target for "hostile words and anti-democratic acts" during his presidency from 2020-2022. He frequently aligns with de Moraes in court decisions.
As the political landscape continues to shift, all eyes remain on these judges and their upcoming decisions.
