A coffee crisis is on the horizon, and it’s hitting New Yorkers hard. The price of your morning coffee could rise by as much as $1 due to a severe drought in Brazil, a country that supplies nearly half of the world’s Arabica coffee beans. This situation is causing alarm among local coffee shop owners and consumers alike.
Peter Longo, owner of Porto Rico Importing Co., which has been a staple in New York for three generations, shares the growing concern, calling the situation “a nightmare.” Earlier this month, prices for Arabica futures skyrocketed to a historic high of $4 per pound on commodity markets, a steep increase from just $2 a pound a year ago.
The ongoing drought has devastated coffee crops across vast regions of South America since the beginning of 2023. With a significant lack of rainfall, global coffee stockpiles have dwindled noticeably, leading to a tightening supply chain.
In response to these challenges, Longo raised the price of his bulk coffee beans from $15.99 to $16.99 per pound. Customers at his coffee bar will soon see prices increase by about 5-10 percent, meaning a medium latte or cappuccino will rise from $4.90 to $5.20. Other coffee shops face similar dilemmas as they’ve already been coping with rising inflation over the past few years.
Teodora Tomic, co-owner of Vibrant Coffee in the West Village, expressed her frustration, saying, “It’s disturbing. We don’t want to change the prices.” Although Tomic mentioned the possible need for a $1 price increase, she hopes to wait until spring or summer to make adjustments, as they wish to be cautious.
Competing with larger businesses is becoming increasingly difficult for smaller coffee shops, as bigger companies have the advantage of securing coffee prices for an entire year. While some, like Starbucks, claim they will hold off on any price increases until at least the end of their fiscal year in September, the reality of the market suggests that most businesses will eventually have to respond to the rising costs.
Coffee analyst Steven Colten warns that many of the high prices we see now haven’t yet fully impacted the supply chain, indicating that coffee roasters will need to adjust their pricing soon. He estimates that retail coffee prices in New York might jump between 10 and 25 percent in the coming months.
At specialty coffee shops, customers will feel the pinch significantly. For example, a medium latte currently priced at $7.25 at popular spots may see increases of 72 cents to $1.60, potentially causing the price to soar as high as $8.85.
As a result, New Yorkers are facing the reality of ever-increasing coffee prices, which has many feeling anxious. Customer Ana Rudnytska voiced her frustration, saying, “It’s so expensive!” Sam Zingerman, another coffee drinker, agreed, stating, “I think that’s crazy. The prices are already very high.”
One customer lamented, “It’s very hard to get just a good cup of coffee for a low price. I feel like it’s become designer coffee almost.” This sentiment reflects a growing concern that coffee—once a simple daily indulgence—has become an expensive luxury.
Overall, the coffee crisis stemming from the drought in Brazil poses significant challenges for both consumers and small business owners throughout New York City. As costs rise and competition intensifies, it remains to be seen how long these price increases will last and how they will affect the local coffee culture that so many New Yorkers cherish.
