The CIA has recently updated its view on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaning towards the theory that the virus may have leaked from a laboratory. This shift comes under the direction of the new CIA head, John Ratcliffe, who released this assessment after a review requested by former President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, toward the end of Biden’s administration.
Despite this change, analysts expressed only “low confidence” in their conclusion. This comes even as former CIA director Bill Burns had urged the agency to thoroughly investigate the evidence. The CIA has long asserted that it did not possess sufficient intelligence to determine whether the virus came from a lab or a wet market in Wuhan, China. However, the new assessment does not appear to introduce fresh evidence.
A CIA spokesperson stated, “The CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the existing information.” They also emphasized that both scenarios continue to be plausible.
John Ratcliffe, a known advocate of the lab leak theory, recently described his approach as part of a larger strategy to confront threats from China. He has called on the CIA to take a firmer stance on this matter, insisting that the agency should be more proactive.
Ratcliffe’s previous critiques targeted the Biden administration for allegedly trying to suppress the growing consensus supporting the lab leak theory, questioning why the CIA claimed insufficient evidence to reach a conclusion.
In a March 2023 article, Ratcliffe emphasized that the CIA, being a leading intelligence agency, should have more information available to assess the origins of the virus. He and co-author Cliff Sims argued against the notion that there is a lack of evidence supporting the lab leak theory, stating there is “a complete absence of intelligence or scientific evidence” indicating that the virus emerged naturally. During a testimony in April 2023, Ratcliffe stated that the lab leak theory is the only explanation that aligns with the available intelligence, scientific data, and common sense.
