Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah Holds Despite Challenges
A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah has surprisingly held for over a month, even as key conditions of the agreement seem hard to fulfill. This ceasefire, reached on November 27, aimed to stop ongoing hostilities, requiring Hezbollah to lay down its arms in southern Lebanon while Israel was expected to withdraw its forces within 60 days.
Currently, Israel has only pulled back from two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon. The country has continued to target what it claims are Hezbollah bases, stating that the group is attempting to launch rockets and hide weapons from Israeli forces.
Hezbollah has faced significant losses during nearly 14 months of conflict and has warned of returning to battle if Israel does not complete its withdrawal by the deadline. Despite mutual accusations of ceasefire violations, experts believe the truce might persist, bringing cautious hope to countless families in both Israel and Lebanon who have been displaced by the conflict.
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, noted that the ceasefire agreement remains somewhat vague and open to different interpretations. This ambiguity could provide a better chance for the agreement to endure amidst shifting political landscapes, including the recent fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad shortly after the ceasefire began.
With Assad’s departure, Hezbollah lost an important route for smuggling weapons from Iran, further straining its capabilities. Although Hezbollah instigated the conflict by launching rockets into Israel on October 8, 2023, resulting in devastating Israeli airstrikes that have claimed over 4,000 lives in Lebanon, the ceasefire’s maintenance is now a critical concern.
As for the ceasefire’s stipulations, both Hezbollah and Israel are expected to stop "offensive" military actions, but they retain the right to defend themselves, although the term "self-defense" is not well-defined. The Lebanese army has been charged with preventing any further attacks into Israel and dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the southern region.
The oversight of this agreement falls on a coalition that includes the United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL. Analysts are more focused not on whether the ceasefire holds but on how the agreement will be implemented.
While Hezbollah has largely ceased its rocket attacks, Israel maintains airstrikes on militant positions in Lebanon. It has withdrawn from only two towns, Khiam and Shamaa, and remains present in about 60 others, leaving around 160,000 Lebanese still displaced.
Lebanon has accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire by conducting numerous air and ground attacks, which it claims hinder the Lebanese army’s deployment efforts. In response, Israel argues that Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire on several occasions, accusing the group of moving munitions and launching rockets towards Israel.
As the ceasefire approaches its 60-day mark, the pace of Israel’s troop withdrawal has been slower than expected, with disagreement between the two sides over the timing and control of the regions in question. Israeli officials have indicated that while they would prefer a quicker transition, the priority remains security in the region.
Hezbollah has asserted that if no progress is made regarding Israeli troops’ presence beyond the deadline, it may renew hostilities. For now, however, the group appears to be holding back, allowing the Lebanese state a chance to lead in enforcing the terms of the agreement.
Throughout the conflict, Hezbollah has suffered substantial losses and strategic setbacks. The dynamic landscape leaves questions regarding the balance of power between Israel and Hezbollah moving forward, with some analysts suggesting that Israel might seek to maintain a degree of military action even after a full withdrawal.
The situation remains delicate, and ongoing developments will be crucial in determining whether lasting peace can emerge from this complex and tumultuous relationship.
