CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — Recent observations show a slight increase in the potential threat from an asteroid known as 2024 YR4. However, the likelihood of it impacting Earth remains very low. According to new calculations, there’s about a 2% chance this space rock could collide with our planet in 2032, leaving a healthy 98% probability that it will safely pass by.
Experts explain that as we gather more data about the asteroid’s orbit around the sun, these odds may rise and fall. Fortunately, there’s a strong possibility that any perceived risk could eventually decrease to zero.
NASA, alongside the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope, plans to observe this asteroid closely in March before it becomes too difficult to track. The next chance to analyze its trajectory will not occur until 2028.
Asteroids are essentially space rocks that orbit the sun, remnants from the solar system’s creation over 4.6 billion years ago. Between Mars and Jupiter lies the main asteroid belt, filled with millions of these celestial objects. Occasionally, some can veer off course, landing in regions closer to Earth, as is the case with 2024 YR4.
The asteroid was discovered in December by a telescope in Chile and is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. Initial predictions suggested a strike probability of just over 1%, which has slightly increased since then. However, NASA affirms that this level of risk is still extremely low.
Larry Denneau, a senior software engineer at the University of Hawaii, reassured the public, encouraging everyone not to panic: “You don’t have to be worried about anything. It’s a curiosity. Let the process play out, and we’ll have a for-sure answer.”
For context, in 2021, similar concerns arose over another asteroid named Apophis. After thorough observational work, NASA confirmed that there was no risk of it hitting Earth in 2068.
Experts emphasize that citizens need not worry about 2024 YR4 at this stage. Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, stated that the increase in impact probability is expected and reassured everyone that it is likely to decrease again.
While the size and orbit of this asteroid remain uncertain, its potential impact location and effects are also unclear. If it ranges on the smaller side, the consequences of a possible strike could be minor. In contrast, a larger asteroid could lead to severe impacts reminiscent of the Tunguska event in Russia back in 1908.
Once the Webb telescope gathers accurate measurements, NASA will be better positioned to assess the gravity of any potential collision and devise methods for asteroid deflection. The agency has already tested its capabilities with the Dart spacecraft, which successfully altered the orbit of a harmless asteroid in 2022.
In summary, while the discovery of 2024 YR4 raises some eyebrows, there’s no immediate cause for concern. With continuous tracking and analysis, the chances of a significant impact remain exceedingly low.
