The recent expiration of the New START treaty has sparked concern among some, with worries about a potential arms race between the United States and Russia. However, a closer look reveals that this development may not be as alarming as some suggest, and could even benefit America’s strategic position.
For years, many have dreamed of a world without nuclear weapons. While this is a noble aspiration, the reality is that such a world remains elusive due to the persistent challenges posed by nations that don’t share the same values.
The New START treaty, initially negotiated by the Obama administration and later extended by the Biden administration, has been criticized for being one-sided. During the Trump administration, concerns were raised that the treaty placed disproportionate restrictions on the United States compared to Russia.
Even with the New START treaty in place, Russia and China have been modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals. Russia has been developing new warheads, and China is rapidly increasing its nuclear capabilities, potentially reaching parity with the United States in the number of intercontinental nuclear missiles by 2030.
Furthermore, there’s evidence that Russia has violated other arms control treaties, raising questions about its commitment to arms control agreements.
Arms control treaties, while potentially helpful in managing certain aspects of nuclear arsenals, do not address the underlying cause of these weapons: the rivalry between major powers. Historical examples show that arms control agreements have not always prevented conflict or aggression.
The idea of equalizing the number of warheads as a foundation for nuclear arms treaties is flawed. Parity in numbers does not guarantee stability, as factors such as missile accuracy and technological superiority can create imbalances in strategic capabilities.
During the Nixon era, an agreement was reached that favored the United States because its arsenal was technologically more advanced than that of the Soviet Union. This allowed the U.S. to maintain an advantage despite numerical parity.
Given China’s growing nuclear capabilities, bilateral treaties solely with Russia are no longer sufficient. The U.S. needs to pursue agreements that include China to ensure a more comprehensive approach to arms control.
The expiration of New START presents an opportunity for the United States to reassess its approach to arms control and prioritize its own security interests. By not rushing to renew a treaty that may be disadvantageous, the U.S. can focus on modernizing its own nuclear forces and developing strategies to deter potential adversaries.
The U.S. must remain vigilant in the face of global threats, particularly those posed by Russia and China. A strong military and a clear foreign policy are essential to deterring aggression and protecting American interests.
