Weather Predictions for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
WASHINGTON — As ocean temperatures remain warmer than average, meteorologists are forecasting another active hurricane season in the Atlantic. However, they believe this year won’t be as chaotic as 2024, which recorded significant destruction and featured dangerous storms like Beryl, Helene, and Milton.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1 and running through November, predicting a 60% chance of above-normal activity, a 30% chance of near-normal activity, and only a 10% chance of below-normal activity.
Forecasters anticipate 13 to 19 named storms, with between six and ten developing into hurricanes, and three to five reaching category three or higher with winds exceeding 110 mph. In a typical season, there are usually 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
While ocean temperatures are not as extreme as last year’s heat, they are still significant enough to support this year’s forecast. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, stated, “Everything is lined up for an above-normal season.”
Despite recent downsizing at NOAA by the Department of Efficiency and Government, Graham assures that the agency’s capacity to serve remains strong. “Our capability to support this country has never been better, and it will be this year as well,” he added during a press conference in Gretna, Louisiana, marking the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
Since 1995, 21 out of the last 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been classified as above normal, with nearly half categorized as “hyperactive.” NOAA uses the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index to classify seasons based on the number, intensity, and duration of storms. Only one year in the past decade—2015—was below normal.
Last year kicked off with an early category 5 hurricane, marking an unusual beginning to the season. After a lull in storm activity, six more storms formed in just two weeks, resulting in a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes during 2024, classified as a hyperactive season.
Kristen Corbosiero, a tropical meteorology professor at the University of Albany, noted that while warmer weather typically correlates with more intense storms, the forecast is not guaranteed. Factors such as ocean temperatures and the natural warming-cooling cycles of the ocean will play critical roles in determining the level of activity this season.
Meteorologists warn that climate change has led to storms intensifying more rapidly, giving communities less time to prepare for landfall. Each category 5 hurricane that has struck the U.S. began as a weaker storm just days before.
Other groups, including academic and private organizations, also predict a relatively active season, with an average forecast of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University predicts slightly higher numbers, citing current ocean temperatures as a driving factor, but reassures that this season should not mirror last year’s storms.
Even if this season seems quieter, it only takes one significant storm to change the landscape, reminding us of the devastating impact of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, a notably calm season before it struck.
As we head into the hurricane season, preparation remains essential for the safety and resilience of communities in potentially affected areas.
