Xi Jinping’s Cooperation with Trump: A Balancing Act
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration on January 20, he has extended a formal invitation to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. However, many experts believe that Xi is unlikely to accept this offer, suggesting that the invitation may not significantly influence the already complex relationship between the United States and China.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming press secretary, confirmed this invitation, but the Chinese Embassy in Washington has remained tight-lipped about their response. Analysts agree that Xi’s attendance is improbable, primarily due to the potential risks associated with such a public appearance.
According to Danny Russel, who formerly held the position of assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, the notion of Xi sitting publicly in Washington for an outdoor event in January is far from appealing. He expressed that Xi wouldn’t want to diminish his status by attending as just another guest celebrating a foreign leader’s triumph.
Yun Sun, who leads the China program at the Stimson Center, pointed out that there are no established protocols or precedents for a Chinese leader attending an inauguration in the U.S. This factor contributes to the notion that Beijing will likely avoid the risk associated with such an appearance.
One of the primary concerns for Chinese officials is the guest list at the event. Sun emphasized the notable example of Taiwan’s top diplomat attending President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021. Given that Taiwan is a sensitive issue for Beijing, such an association could deepen tensions.
Xi’s hesitation may also be affected by Trump’s history of trade threats. If Trump were to implement tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods upon taking office, an invitation acceptance would make Xi appear foolish, which is unacceptable to Beijing. The Chinese leadership prioritizes the dignity and security of their leader during international engagements.
Russel highlighted that Chinese officials expect any visit to Washington to be treated like a full state visit, complete with customary honors and protocols. This cultural expectation underscores the complexities involved in international diplomacy with China.
Looking ahead, both Trump and Xi may eventually meet in person. Russel noted that Trump generally prefers face-to-face discussions, especially with significant global players and adversaries. With Trump in office again, there may be opportunities for direct negotiations, as China might see this as a path to securing better agreements.
As Trump assumes the presidency, it is anticipated that U.S.-China relations will become more competitive. He has already appointed a Cabinet made up of individuals with strong views on China, including Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser. This selection indicates a potential shift toward a more hawkish stance on China, escalating the existing rivalry.
Currently, Beijing seems to be taking a "wait-and-see" approach, observing how the U.S. will proceed under Trump’s leadership. Chinese officials have signaled their willingness to retaliate if Washington raises tariffs or takes other aggressive actions against them.
Experts caution that Trump’s invitation to Xi should not be misconstrued as an indication of a softer policy toward China. Sun pointed out that Trump’s friendly overtures in previous discussions did not prevent him from launching a trade war shortly afterward.
In essence, there is a complex relationship woven into diplomatic gestures. Trump often utilizes a strategy of mixing both incentives and punitive measures, signaling a message that could lead to confusion or hesitance from the Chinese leadership. From Beijing’s perspective, this creates uncertainty and reinforces their desire to tread carefully in managing their interactions with Trump.
In the end, as both nations navigate their roles on the global stage, mutual understanding and respect will be paramount. Dialogue and diplomacy remain crucial as the U.S. and China confront the challenges and opportunities ahead.
