Kentucky Derby: Field Set for the 151st Edition
The excitement for the 151st Kentucky Derby is reaching a fever pitch as the post positions have been drawn and the field is fully established. Notably, there were a couple of last-minute changes before the official draw. Both Bob Baffert’s Madaket Road and Brad Cox’s Tappan Street have been scratched from the race, leading to their replacement by Render Judgement, trained by Kenneth G. McPeek, and Neoequos, from Saffie Joseph Jr.
Following the draw, betting odds have fluctuated for several horses, but Journalism stands out as the clear favorite. Historically, favorites have won about 35% of the time since 1908. Interestingly, none have succeeded in the last five years, which adds an intriguing twist to this year’s anticipation.
Post Position Success Rates
Before analyzing the contenders, it’s worth examining which post positions have historically performed best in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a quick summary of the success rates of post positions 1-20 since 1930, along with the last year a winner emerged from each spot.
- Post Position 1: 8 wins, last win in 1986
- Post Position 2: 7 wins, last win in 1978
- Post Position 3: 5 wins, last win in 1998
- Post Position 4: 5 wins, last win in 2010
- Post Position 5: 10 wins, last win in 2017
- Post Position 20: 2 wins (highest win percentage—11.1%), last win in 2022
Clearly, while Post Position 5 has produced the most winners, Post Position 20 has delivered the highest percentage of victories compared to its limited runs.
An Overview of the 2025 Contenders
As we delve into this year’s Derby field, here’s a brief introduction to each horse, highlighting their lineage, jockey, trainer, and notable achievements that have qualified them for this prestigious race.
-
Citizen Bull (20-1)
- Sire: Into Mischief
- Jockey: Martin Garcia
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Highlight: Winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
-
Neoequos (30-1)
- Sire: Neolithic
- Jockey: Flavien Pratt
- Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Highlight: Third place at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
-
Final Gambit (30-1)
- Sire: Not This Time
- Jockey: Luan Machado
- Trainer: Brad H. Cox
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks.
-
Rodriguez (12-1)
- Sire: Authentic
- Jockey: Michael E. Smith
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Wood Memorial.
-
American Promise (30-1)
- Sire: Justify
- Jockey: Nik Juarez
- Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Virginia Derby.
-
Admire Daytona (30-1)
- Sire: Drefong
- Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
- Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
- Highlight: Winner of the UAE Derby.
-
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
- Sire: American Pharaoh
- Jockey: TBA
- Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Fukuryu Stakes.
-
Journalism (3-1)
- Sire: Curlin
- Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
- Trainer: Mike McCarthy
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Santa Anita Derby.
-
Burnham Square (12-1)
- Sire: Liam’s Map
- Jockey: Brian T. Hernandez, Jr.
- Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes.
-
Grande (20-1)
- Sire: Curlin
- Jockey: John Velazquez
- Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
- Highlight: Second place at the Wood Memorial.
-
Flying Mohawk (30-1)
- Sire: Karakontie
- Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos
- Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
- Highlight: Second in the 2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks.
-
East Avenue (20-1)
- Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
- Jockey: Luan Machado
- Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
- Highlight: Second in the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes.
-
Publisher (20-1)
- Sire: American Pharoah
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
- Highlight: Second in the Arkansas Derby.
-
Tiztastic (20-1)
- Sire: Tiz the Law
- Jockey: Joel Rosario
- Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Louisiana Derby.
-
Render Judgement (30-1)
- Sire: Blame
- Jockey: Julien Leparoux
- Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
- Highlight: Fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes.
-
Coal Battle (30-1)
- Sire: Coal Front
- Jockey: Juan P. Vargas
- Trainer: Lonnie Briley
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Rebel Stakes.
-
Sandman (6-1)
- Sire: Tapit
- Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
- Trainer: Mark Casse
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Arkansas Derby.
-
Sovereignty (12-1)
- Sire: Into Mischief
- Jockey: Manuel Franco
- Trainer: William I. Mott
- Highlight: Winner of the 2025 Fountain of Youth.
-
Chunk of Gold (30-1)
- Sire: Preservationist
- Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
- Trainer: Ethan W. West
- Highlight: Second at the 2025 Louisiana Derby.
- Owen Almighty (30-1)
- Sire: Speightstown
- Jockey: TBA
- Trainer: Brian Lynch
- Highlight: Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby.
As the world gears up for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3, attention will be focused on Churchill Downs for updates, predictions, and, of course, the exhilarating race itself.
